::: TSR Weekly Report
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2019-06-29 | NO.43(26) epaper |
Note to Readers
TSR is pleased to announce newly published books about Taiwan and East Asia on its website and in its weekly newsletter. If you're a scholar or your book is coming out from an academic press, please send the title of your book and a link to the publisher's web site to TSR's Senior Editor, James Lee (JL18@alumni.princeton.edu).
Cross-Strait Relations
Xi Jinping’s Taiwan Policy and Its Impact on Cross-Strait Relations (2019-06-01)
(China Leadership Monitor, By Syaru Shirley Lin) Taiwan’s 2020 presidential campaign has already produced candidates with a wide range of views on cross-Strait relations. Beijing’s goal is to defeat the DPP and support a new leadership friendlier to China, but it is unclear which of the rival candidates can accomplish such a task and whether Chinese attempts to influence the election will prove counter-productive. <Accessed 2019-07-06>

Taipei Mayor to Attend Twin-City Forum in Shanghai Next Month (2019-06-23)
(CNA, By Liang Pei-chi and Emerson Lim) Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je will be traveling to Shanghai this July for the annual Taipei-Shanghai City Forum. The forum is meant to strengthen cooperation and increase exchanges between the two cities. This year's forum will focus on biotechnology, medical technology, cultural exchange, entrepreneurship, and smart city development, according to a Taipei city spokesman. <Accessed 2019-06-24>

Chinese Aircraft Carrier Passes Through Taiwan Strait (2019-06-25)
(CNA, By Joseph Yeh) While returning from a mission in the South China Sea on Tuesday, China's aircraft carrier passed through the Taiwan Strait, according to the Taiwanese military. The aircraft carrier passed by Japanese islands earlier this month on its way to Chinese naval exercises in the Pacific Ocean. <Accessed 2019-06-25>

Tsai Urged to Speak Up for HK Ahead of Extradition Bill Protest (2019-06-25)
(CNA, By Stacy Hsu) Hong Kong citizens delivered a petition to the Presidential Office of Taiwan on Tuesday to urge President Tsai Ing-wen to directly voice her support of Hong Kong protesters before the G20 summit later this week. China's assistant foreign minister has already stated that China will not allow talk of Hong Kong at the summit. The Presidential Office stated that Taiwan will continue to show concern for Hong Kong "in an appropriate manner." <Accessed 2019-06-25>
U.S.-Taiwan Relations
No Change in U.S. Stance on Arms Sales to Taiwan: AIT (2019-06-25)
(CNA, By Joseph Yeh) A spokesperson for the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) reaffirmed the U.S.' commitment to continuing arms sales to Taiwan. The announcement comes amidst reports that the United States intended to temporarily halt arms sales to Taiwan in order to reach a trade deal with China. The AIT spokesperson stated that the U.S. will continue to act based upon the Taiwan Relations Act. <Accessed 2019-06-25>

U.S. to Normalize Arms Sales Partnership with Taiwan: Official (2019-06-27)
(CNA, By Chiang Chin-yeh and Chi Jo-yao) The United States plans to normalize arms sales to Taiwan and make the island a "normal" foreign military sales (FMS) partner, according to US Assistant Secretary of Defense Randall Schriver. Schriver also stated that the United States will continue to cooperate with Taiwan in security affairs under the terms established in the Taiwan Relations Act. A specific timeline for normalization has not been released. <Accessed 2019-06-28>

Is It Time for the United States to Recognize Taiwan? (2019-06-29)
(The Diplomat, By Ben Lowsen) As the Indo-Pacific Strategy Report released on June 1, 2019 referred to Taiwan as a "country", the question of whether it is time for the US to recognize Taiwan comes to light. While the US could recognize Taipei as the legitimate government of Taiwan, the question of whether Taiwan could maintain its self-governance depends on China's willingness to permit Taiwan to develop peacefully. <Accessed 2019-06-30>
Taiwan's Domestic Politics and Foreign Relations
Tsai Ing-wen Regains Some Ground but Youth Vote May Hold the Key to Taiwan’s Election (2019-06-23)
(South China Morning Post, By Lawrence Chung) Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s re-election bid is likely to get a boost from the extradition bill controversy in Hong Kong amid fears over growing pressure from Beijing, but young voters may hold the key to next year’s poll. <Accessed 2019-07-06>

Hong Kong Protests Give Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen a Boost as Elections Approach
 (2019-06-23)
(CNBC, By Huileng Tan) 
The controversy surrounding recent Hong Kong protests over a proposed extradition bill have propelled cross-Strait relations as an issue at the forefront of of the upcoming Taiwanese presidential election. Incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen has been outspoken against the ‘one country, two systems’ and in support of the Hong Kong protests. This support for Hong Kong may have helped boost her domestic support, propelling her to win the Democratic Progressive Party’s nomination. <Accessed 2019-06-24>

Protesters Gather in Taipei, Asking 'Red Media' to Leave Taiwan (2019-06-23)
(CNA, By Stacy Hsu) Thousands of people gathered in Taipei this Sunday to protest "red media" outlets, believed to be influenced or controlled by China. Protesters claimed that China utilizes "red media" outlets as a way to spread false information with the purpose of pursuing China's goals regarding Taiwan, such as undermining the island's democracy. Protesters urged the Taiwanese government to take concrete action against the suspected media companies and outlets. <Accessed 2019-06-24>

Belize National Security Minister Visits Taiwan  (2019-06-24)
(CNA, By Joseph Yeh)
Belizean Minister of National Security John Saldivar arrived in Taiwan Monday for a five-day visit marking the 30th anniversary of Taiwan-Belize diplomatic relations. During his trip, Saldivar will visit with Taiwan’s National Security Council head, Defense Minister, and Vice Foreign Minister, as well as making a number of military-related visits in order to understand Taiwan’s military and shipbuilding development. <Accessed 2019-06-24>

Solomon Islands Plans Due Diligence Tour on Taiwan Ties (2019-06-24)
(Reuters, By Tom Westbrook)
A delegation from the Solomon Islands sent by Prime minister Manasseh Sogavare will visit Beijing, Taipei, and surrounding island nations which receive aid from China as it reviews its diplomatic relations with Taiwan. The delegation leader, John Moffat Fugui, said Monday that they will observe the development relationship between China and the countries to evaluate whether switching diplomatic ties from Taiwan to China would be more beneficial to the small island state. <Accessed 2019-06-24>

Tsai Leading in Three-Way Presidential Poll (2019-06-25)
(Taipei Times, By Yang Chun-hui and Sherry Hsiao) Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen is currently leading in a three-way presidential poll between herself, independent Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je, and Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu, a Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) primary candidate. Tsai is polling at 36.9% of votes while Han and Ko would receive 29.4% and 27.5% respectively. The survey also found that Tsai's approval rating, especially regarding her foreign policy, has improved. <Accessed 2019-06-25>

Taiwan Presidential Hopeful Han Kuo-yu Left at Sea by Fiasco over ‘Shipping Route to Mainland’ (2019-06-26)
(South China Morning Post, By Lawrence Chung) Han Kuo-yu’s Kaohsiung city government has come under fire as he vies to be Taiwan’s next president, after it appeared to endorse a new shipping route to mainland China that has no licence to operate. <Accessed 2019-07-06>

Taiwan's Security Role in the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy (2019-06-28)
(The Diplomat, By Howard Wang) The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) released its first Indo-Pacific Strategy Report on June 1 this year, emphasizing economic development and respect for sovereignty of all nations, with the 3 pillars of preparedness, partnerships and the promotion of a networked region. The second and third pillars, if successfully implemented, would represent a stronger U.S.-Taiwan partnership and closer security cooperation between Taiwan and U.S. regional allies, in upholding a free and open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) vision. <Accessed 2019-06-28>

President to Transit in US for Caribbean Trip Next Month: Sources (2019-06-29)
(Taipei Times, By Su Yung-yao and Jonathan Chin) President Tsai Ing-wen will be visiting Taiwan's diplomatic allies in the Caribbean next month, making two stops in Denver and New York City, United States. Taiwan's Caribbean allies are firm in their support of Taiwan's inclusion in international events, according to government sources. An itinerary for the trip has not yet been released by the Taiwanese government. <Accessed 2019-06-29>
U.S.-China Relations
U.S. Tech Companies Sidestep a Trump Ban, to Keep Selling to Huawei (2019-06-25)
(New York Times, By Paul Mozur and Cecilia Kang) United States chip makers are still selling millions of dollars of products to Huawei despite a Trump administration ban on the sale of American technology to the Chinese telecommunications giant, according to four people with knowledge of the sales. <Accessed 2019-07-06>
 
China, US Trade Officials Talk Ahead of Trump-Xi Meeting (2019-06-25)
(Al Jazeera, By Staff Writer) Chinese Vice Premier Liu He spoke with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin via telephone on Monday. The conversation comes just days before President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump are expected to meet at the G20 summit later this week. The ongoing China-U.S. trade war will be a central topic of the meeting. <Accessed 2019-06-25>

U.S. Versus China: A New Era of Great Power Competition, but Without Boundaries (2019-06-26)
(New York Times, By Edward Wong) The main elements in relations — economic and commercial ties — have become unmoored, and few agree on the future contours of the relationship or the magnitude of the conflicts. <Accessed 2019-07-06>

Trump Agrees to No Preconditions for Meeting with China's Xi: Kudlow (2019-06-27)
(Reuters, By Jeff Mason and Yawen Chen) The outcome of President Xi and President Trump's meeting at the G20 summit this weekend will determine whether Trump imposes new tariffs on $300 billion worth of Chinese imports, according to the White House economic adviser. The White House has stated that it has not agreed to any terms or preconditions before entering talks this weekend. China has called on the U.S. to remove the ban on Huawei and reestablish cooperative ties. <Accessed 2019-06-28>

As Trump and Xi Talk Trade, Huawei Will Loom Large (2019-06-28)
(New York Times, By Raymond Zhong) President Trump and China’s leader, Xi Jinping, are expected to try again to resolve their tariff war when they meet in Japan on Saturday. First, they will need to figure out what to do about Huawei. <Accessed 2019-07-06>

Poll: Majority of Americans See US and China as Rivals (2019-06-29)
(The Diplomat, By Ankit Panda) A recent survey demonstrated that the majority of Americans see US and China as rivals. This result is a consequence of the American public's perception of the rivalry between the US and China due to the ongoing trade war, and a rivalry that most Americans feel could potentially continue in the foreseeable future. <Accessed 2019-06-29>

The Case for Containing China (2019-06-29)
(The Diplomat, By Francis P. Sempa) It is without question that China is the United States' peer competitor. However, China is not invincible as it has its own domestic problems and economic vulnerabilities. The sensible way forward for the United States in light of China's challenge is containment, including an explicit policy that will not be misinterpreted by China. <Accessed 2019-06-29>

Getting the World to Comply with the US Huawei Ban Won't be Easy (2019-06-29)
(The Diplomat, By Robert Farley) The United States is facing challenges in getting companies to comply with its ban on trade with Chinese firm Huawei. Enforcement becomes difficult since China provides incentives to companies, such as access to Chinese workers, markets and resources. Enforcement is further hampered as US regulators lack access to what actually goes on inside Chinese factories and US companies are not transparent about their activities. <Accessed 2019-06-30>

Trump Relents on Huawei in China Truce, Reviving Stalled Talks (2019-06-29)
(Bloomberg, By Shawn Donnan and Miao Han) The United States and China agreed on Saturday during the G20 summit in Japan to restart trade negotiations. President Trump agreed to remove some restrictions on Huawei, allowing companies to conduct business with the Chinese firm in cases where it does not present a national security risk. Trump also will not be implementing the $300 billion worth of tariffs on Chinese imports that he threatened prior to the summit. <Accessed 2019-06-29>

Donald Trump, Xi Jinping Agree to Trade War Truce and to Resume Talks after G20 Summit Meeting (2019-06-29)
(South China Morning Post, By Wendy Wu, Zhou Xin, and Teddy Ng) Chinese President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Donald Trump have wrapped up their high-stakes summit at the G20 in Osaka, Japan, with the American leader saying the outcome was “better than expected”, and China saying the US had agreed not to impose any further tariffs on its goods. <Accessed 2019-07-06>
China's Domestic Politics and Foreign Relations
A World Safe for Autocracy? China’s Rise and the Future of Global Politics (2019-06-11)
(Foreign Affairs, By Jessica Chen Weiss) Since 2012, China’s growing authoritarianism and resurgent state dominance over the economy have dashed Western hopes that China would eventually embrace liberalism. And China’s actions abroad have offered alternatives to U.S.-led international institutions, made the world safer for other authoritarian governments, and undermined liberal values. But those developments reflect less a grand strategic effort to undermine democracy and spread autocracy than the Chinese leadership’s desire to secure its position at home and abroad.

Whither ‘One Country, Two Systems’? (2019-06-24)
(East Asia Forum, By Kerry Brown) So, while all sorts of rhetoric is devoted to still according Hong Kong’s special status, it is clear that the mindset of Xi and his colleagues in the Communist Party is that in their current position, there is little if any reason to set too much store on simply standing by promises made about Hong Kong in the past when the situation was different and, crucially, they were weaker. <Accessed 2019-07-06>

Hong Kong's Protesters Live Up to Their City's Heritage
 (2019-06-24)
(The Diplomat, By Bonnie Girard) The recent protest against the extradition bill demonstrated by the people of Hong Kong is not something new. Over the years, Hong Kongers have voiced for justice, the protection of freedom of speech and press, universal suffrage, and open elections. Hong Kongers' unwavering spirit of activism over the years speaks volume to who the people of Hong Kong really are. <Accessed 2019-06-25>

China's Long, Hot Summer of Censorship (2019-06-26)
(The Diplomat, By Sarah Cook) China is set to boost its censorship efforts in light of the recent protest in Hong Kong and the availability of sophisticated information-control system. For instance, China's popular social media applications imposed penalties to prevent information about the Tiananmen Square massacre from spreading. Despite China censoring information within the country, several recent data show that the Chinese people would like to know what the Chinese government is not telling them. <Accessed 2019-06-25>

Xi Jinping's Busy G-20 Summit (2019-06-26)
(The Diplomat, By Eleanor Albert) The world will be watching in anticipation on the planned sit-down between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump at the upcoming G-20 Summit in Osaka, Japan. Xi will also be meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to finalize a joint cooperation on giant panda breeding research and South Korean President Moon Jae-in to discuss further on North Korean denuclearization. <Accessed 2019-06-26>

China ‘Wants New Security Relationship with Japan’ as US Trade War Leaves Beijing Looking for Friends (2019-06-27)
(South China Morning Post, By Kristin Huang) China has suggested to Japan that the two countries should try to build a new security relationship as it seeks to overcome their long-standing rivalry in the face of worsening relations with the United States, according to a former Japanese diplomat. <Accessed 2019-07-06>

Hong Kong Protesters Push Ahead as Territory’s Leader Unseen (2019-06-27)
(Associated Press, By Katie Tam) Hundreds of protesters gathered outside of Hong Kong's Justice Department on Thursday, demanding the full withdrawal of the controversial extradition bill and the release of arrested protesters. Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam has not been seen in public for nearly two weeks since her apology regarding the handling of the extradition bill. Protesters have urged G20 members to discuss Hong Kong during the G20 summit this weekend. <Accessed 2019-06-28>

Hong Kong's Extradition Bill and Taiwan's Sovereignty Dilemma (2019-06-28)
(The Diplomat, By Ming-Sung Kuo) While the recent protest in Hong Kong against the extradition bill mostly centers around Hong Kong, the incident which sparked this controversial amendment to Hong Kong's extradition law remains to be heard. Since most countries recognize Taiwan under the "one China principle", Taiwan faces challenges in entering into extradition treaties internationally. Consequently, Taiwan faces considerable difficulty in exercising its sovereignty to assert criminal jurisdiction over extraterritorial crimes and fugitives. <Accessed 2019-06-27>

Russia Offers China another Batch of Su-35 Fighter Jets (2019-06-28)
(The Diplomat, By Franz-Stefan Gady) Russia's Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation (FSVTS) announced that Russia has offered to sell China a second batch of Su-35S fighter jets and is awaiting a response from China. In April 2018, China's Ministry of National Defense (MND) announced that the Su-35 had entered service with the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), making China the first international customer of the Su-35. <Accessed 2019-06-27>

Hong Kong Extradition Law: The Fallout (2019-06-28)
(The Diplomat, By Mercy A. Kuo) The controversial extradition bill, if passed, would have grave consequences for both Chinese and foreign nationals who are accused of committing crimes in mainland China or threatening China's national security, since the Chinese government can request Hong Kong to arrest and hand them over to mainland China. The amendment to the extradition law also affect Hong Kong's status as an international financial center as many foreign firms and Hong Kong and Chinese tycoons are considering to leave Hong Kong. <Accessed 2019-06-27>

Trump Wants China to Pick Up the Slack in the Strait of Hormuz (2019-06-28)
(The Diplomat, By Ankit Panda) U.S. President Donald J. Trump's message for other countries to shoulder the responsibility in protecting freedom of navigation and safety of critical sea lanes could be a welcome opening to China. For instance, China used its People's Liberation Army Navy's (PLAN) involvement in anti-piracy enforcement activities to justify China's act to improve its naval strength. <Accessed 2019-06-26>

Is Huawei's Offer One India cannot Refuse? (2019-06-29)
(The Diplomat, By Aayush Mohanty) While Huawei has offered the Indian government a "no-backdoor" agreement, it remains to be seen whether India will accept the offer. While the "no-backdoor" agreement would provide assurances on paper, China's new intelligence law makes the agreement difficult to believe. Accepting Huawei's offer could present security risks for India, but at the same time India's non-alignment policy requires India not to give in to the United States' requests. <Accessed 2019-06-29>

What's Wrong in Hong Kong?
 (2019-06-29)
(The Diplomat, By Tim Summers) Most Hong Kong analysts are asking whether China's "one country, two systems" political formula for Hong Kong is working or not. Regardless of whether the people of Hong Kong seek independence or assimilation into China, it is imperative that all parties, namely the Chinese and Hong Kong governments, the legislature and the people of Hong Kong, could come together to discuss, debate, and compromise. <Accessed 2019-06-29>

China's Front Door to America's Backyard (2019-06-29)
(The Diplomat, By Don Giolzetti) China has expanded its influence and presence in the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC region), as evidenced by China's relations with Panama on a string of cooperation. China's ties with Panama is a strategic move to secure an economic foothold between the North and South American continents, as Panama could act as a gateway for China's presence and promote its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the region. <Accessed 2019-06-29>

China's Liberal Hawk: Yan Xuetong's Vision for Chinese Benevolence Dominance (2019-06-29)
(The Diplomat, By Pär Nyrén) Any promising signs for a more liberal-leaning China become bleak as China tighten its grip on freedom of speech and human rights at home. However, Yan Xuetong, dean of the Institute for International Relations at Tsinghua University, theorizes that Chinese international dominance could be disruptive and benevolent. Yan argues that perceived legitimacy, together with economic and military strength are all necessary to attain leadership among nations. <Accessed 2019-06-29>
Territorial Disputes, the Korean Peninsula, and Other Regional Issues
Territorial Disputes

Chinese President Xi Jinping Calls for US and North Korean Leaders to Hold Third Nuclear Summit (2019-06-27)
(South China Morning Post, By Lee Jeong-ho) Chinese President Xi Jinping has called on the leaders of the United States and North Korea to have a third summit, and show flexibility in resolving the Korean peninsula nuclear issues, following his unprecedented state visit to Pyongyang last week. <Accessed 2019-07-06>

Red Tide: China-North Korea Naval Cooperation
 (2019-06-28)
(The Diplomat, By Adam Cathcart) Some recent developments indicate that a China-North Korea naval cooperation is likely to take place. North Korea sent a naval delegation led by General Kim Myong Sik to Qingdao for a week in April. Furthermore, in North Korea national security is closely linked with the fishing industry, and North Korea's lack of development and clean coastlines are economically attractive for Chinese fishing and aquaculture firms. <Accessed 2019-06-27>

Rethinking Taiwan's Claims in the South China Sea
 (2019-06-29)
(The Diplomat, By Gary Sands) China's claim to the South China Sea has resulted in scrutiny and harsh criticism from the international community. After retreating to Taiwan, the Republic of China (ROC) continued to lay claims to the South China Sea under their U-shaped line but less aggressively compared to China. If Taiwan seeks to safeguard its identity as a separate nation from China, Taiwan should make its own distinct claims. <Accessed 2019-06-29>

Saving the China-ASEAN South China Sea Code of Conduct (2019-06-29)
(The Diplomat, By Nguyen Minh Quang) While the recent Association of Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN) Summit showed a positive spirit among its members, talks on a Code of Conduct (COC) to regulate actions in the South China Sea lacked progress. Negotiations over the COC failed to generate any promising results due to four challenges identified by Carl Thayer, emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales in Australia. Without a legally-binding mechanism in the South China Sea, ASEAN will have to strengthen ties with external powers to counter China's expansion in the region. <Accessed 2019-06-30>


The Korean Peninsula

Trump’s Offer to Say ‘Hello’ to Kim at DMZ Carries Risks and Rewards for Both
 (2019-06-29)
(New York Times, By Michael Crowley) President Trump said on Sunday morning that he would stage another dramatic encounter with Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, in a last-minute meeting that could serve the interests of both men but is unlikely to bring North Korea closer to Mr. Trump’s goal of denuclearization. <Accessed 2019-07-06>

DMZ Diplomacy? Trump Outreach to Kim for Border Rendezvous (2019-06-29)
(Associated Press, By Zeke Miller and Jonathan Lemire) On Saturday, President Trump publicly invited North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to meet at the demilitarized zone (DMZ), stating that he would be willing to potentially step over to the North Korean side of the border. It is unclear what the agenda of such a meeting would be; however, the meeting could afford Kim the legitimacy and recognition he seeks on the international stage. <Accessed 2019-06-29>

Other Regional Issues

Trump Muses Privately About Ending Postwar Japan Defense Pact (2019-06-24)
(Bloomberg, By Jennifer Jacobs) President Donald Trump has recently mused to confidants about withdrawing from a longstanding defense treaty with Japan, according to three people familiar with the matter, in his latest complaint about what he sees as unfair U.S. security pacts. <Accessed 2019-06-25>

Schisms on Display as the G20 Summit Convenes (2019-06-29)
(The Diplomat, By Elaine Kurtenbach and Foster Klug) G-20 leaders clash over values despite the Group's efforts to cooperate and build consensus on broad policies and geopolitical issues. For instance, as China, Russia and India stressed on non-intervention in the domestic affairs of other sovereign nations, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reminded Chinese President Xi Jinping the importance of upholding the rule of law and protection of human rights. <Accessed 2019-06-30>

Contact: James Lee, Senior Editor 

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