Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

February 11, 1999

Recent media reports indicate that one potential response to the development of both advanced theater missile defenses (TMD) and a U.S. national missile defense (NMD) is an increase in deployed offensive nuclear forces by other nations. While U.S. officials state that the current missile defense blueprint is designed to protect U.S. forces and the U.S. homeland against a limited ballistic missile attack by a rogue nation, or an accidental missile launch, these plans have the unintended effect of threatening the deterrent force of some nations. In some cases, these nations might feel compelled to build up, both in number and technical capability, their nuclear forces in order to counter the limited U.S. missile defense system.

In one such case, reports surfaced this week indicating that China has already deployed as many as one hundred new short-range M-9 and M-11 ballistic missiles along its coast, presumably aimed in the direction of Taiwan. This massive, three-fold increase in deployed forces is in response to a potential U.S. plan for an East Asia TMD system that might include Taiwan, as well as Japan and South Korea.

Ambassador Sha Zukang, China's top arms control and disarmament official, spoke last month at the Carnegie International Non-Proliferation Conference in Washington. Below is an excerpted portion of his remarks on the threat of ballistic missiles and the effects of missile defense on strategic stability.

Devoid of any legal basis in international law, missile non-proliferation is the most under-developed part of the entire international non-proliferation regime. As the founders of the Missile and Technology Control Regime (MTCR) admitted, MTCR is just a time-winning device. Its purpose is to delay missile proliferation rather than provide a comprehensive solution to this problem. Even this limited role was somehow diminished by the regime's lack of objective criteria, and the double standard applied by certain MTCR members in implementing requirements of the regime. Recent developments have shown that the risk of missile proliferation is increasing. It is time for the international community to take a collective look at the missile proliferation issue, including MTCR, and explore better ways to combat this danger.

Defense or Offense: A Thin Red Line

One cannot discuss missile proliferation without mentioning Theater Missile Defense (TMD). We are deeply concerned about certain countries' efforts to develop advanced TMD or even NMD, for the following reasons:

First, the development of advanced TMD or even NMD will have negative impacts on the regional or even global strategic stability. Like nuclear weapons, missiles can proliferate both horizontally and vertically. If a country, in addition to its offensive power, seeks to develop advanced TMD or even NMD, in an attempt to attain absolute security and unilateral strategic advantage for itself, other countries will be forced to develop more advanced offensive missiles. This will give rise to a new round of arms race, and will be in nobody's interest. To avoid such a situation, it is extremely important to maintain and strengthen the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM). During the Cold War, ABM was one of the cornerstones of the strategic stability between the United States and the former Soviet Union, which made it possible for the two countries to make deep cuts into their respective nuclear arsenals. After the Cold War, with the world moving rapidly towards multi-polarity, the significance of ABM Treaty has increased rather than decreased. Some scholars have put forward the idea of making the ABM Treaty a multilateral treaty. I think this is an idea worthy of our serious consideration.

Secondly, transferring TMD systems to other countries or region, or jointly developing them with other countries, will inevitably result in the proliferation of missile technology. Missile and anti-missile technologies are related. Many of the technologies used in anti-missile systems are easily applicable in offensive missiles. This is one of the main reasons why China stands against the cooperation between the United States and Japan to develop TMD and opposes any transfer of TMD systems to Taiwan. We hope that the U.S. Government could take a more cautious and responsible attitude on this matter. China's opposition to U.S. transfers of TMD to Taiwan is also based on another major concern, namely, its adverse impact on China's reunification. TMD in Taiwan will give the pro-independence forces in Taiwan a false sense of security, which may incite them to reckless movers. This can only lead to instability across the Taiwan Strait or even in the entire North-East Asian region.

Ambassador Sha Zukang is Director General for Arms Control and Disarmament at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, People's Republic of China. He delivered his remarks on January 12, 1999, at the Seventh Carnegie International Non-Proliferation Conference in Washington, D.C.